How fast does a technology market form?
Observed stage transitions reveal where market formation moves quickly and where confirmation still takes weeks.
Detection is fast. Establishment is not.
The median line moves from detected to emerging in 3 days and from emerging to market-forming in 4. The final transition takes 24.5 days, showing that durable confirmation requires repeated evidence across a much longer interval.
Current market-stage distribution
All 60 currently published canonical lines, including earlier archive entries.
The four established lines
These are the only movements that completed the full observed market-stage path.
AI Agent Reliability
164 supporting publications across 16 sources, observed on 26 days. Current score: 92.
Physical AI Deployment
103 supporting publications across 11 sources, observed on 18 days. Current score: 87.
Local AI Runtime
85 supporting publications across 14 sources, observed on 15 days. Current score: 92.
Reusable Agent Skills
46 supporting publications across 9 sources, observed on 10 days. Current score: 87.
What the timing says
Early stages are classification decisions
A second or stronger observation can move a line quickly. These stages answer whether a pattern is becoming coherent, not whether a market is already mature.
Establishment is an evidence-duration test
The median 24.5-day final transition is more than six times longer than either early step. Persistence is doing real work in the model.
Stage is not popularity
A narrow infrastructure line can become established with durable cross-source evidence even if it never becomes a mass-market topic.